Epidemiology and Public Health

Carlos Avila

Introduction

This chapter reviews the epidemiology of the HIV-infection and is focused on public health programs to prevent the spread of this epidemic in Latin America. The aim is to review biological, behavioral, and social factors that significantly impact the course of the HIV epidemic. Also, to review some important issues in vaccine development from an epidemiological point of view. Epidemiology is used as a tool to analyze the incidence and distribution of the HIV-epidemic, to identify risk factors associated with its spread, and to assess the impact of control interventions. All this information is processed and directed to decision makers for the definition of national and regional agendas.

Despite the fact that AIDS in Latin America has caused more than 80,000 deaths, some health officials are still hesitant to recognize the importance of the HIV epidemic as one of the major health problems in our region. For example, AIDS in Brazil and in Mexico is emerging as the major cause of death among men between 24 and 45 years of age. In some Latin American countries, AIDS is only surpassed by injury as cause of death. Since AIDS affects an important segment of the productive labor force, the future impact on human capital and on production might be substantial. Mortality is only one criteria to define priorities in the health sector. A recently developed indicator combines mortality and disability caused by disease in one index. Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) adds the adjusted life years lost due to premature mortality and disability due to the disease.

Two perspectives should be taken into account in order to analyze the impact of the HIV epidemic: its social impact and its burden on the health care system.

Current status of the epidemic in Latin America and the Caribbean

HIV-infection is one of the major cause of mortality and morbidity in developing as well as newly industrialized countries. In fact, the Joint United Nations Program on HIV\AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates that 94 percent of the 21.8 million people living worldwide with HIV\AIDS are in the developing world. The care and treatment of AIDS patients dramatically increase the burden on the health systems and divert scarce health-care resources from preventive care. Given health-care budget constrains, the allocation of health services strongly depends on the adequate understanding of the epidemiology of AIDS and HIV infection. The size of the epidemic in Latin America has major demographic, epidemiological. and economic implications. As in other regions, the AIDS epidemic in Latin America and the Caribbean is becoming a major public health problem. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates 2 million HIV-infected people living in Latin America and the Caribbean. Accurate estimation of the size and velocity of the epidemic would allow planning health care and social services for HIV-infected people. As of June 1996, a total of 176,930 AIDS cases have been reported in Latin America. Nine countries¾ Brazil (71,111), Mexico (26,660), Argentina (6,853), Colombia (5,763), Venezuela (4,960), Honduras (4,424), Dominican Republic (2,948), Peru (2,709), and El Salvador (1,248)¾ account for 80 percent of the reported cases in Latin America. During 1994, the highest cumulative incidence of AIDS per million population was observed in the Bahamas (1,183), French Guyana (598), Barbados (458), Guadeloupe (268), Trinidad (208), Jamaica (142), Honduras (138), Guyana (127), Caiman Islands (111), Grenada (74), Brazil (75), Panama (72), El Salvador (69), Dominica (60), Argentina (56), and Mexico (44).

The modes of transmission vary from country to country. The dominant modes of transmission range from epidemics that are predominately related to homo-bisexual behaviors, to epidemics connected to injecting drug use, and to other that are primarily determined by heterosexual transmission. Sexual transmission of HIV accounts for 80 percent of overall transmission in the region, ranging from 64% in Brazil to 90% in Colombia. The AIDS epidemic in Colombia, Venezuela, and Mexico is mainly homo/bisexual; in Central America and the Caribbean the epidemic is predominantly heterosexual; and Argentina and Brazil have an important proportion of IV-drug related cases.

Sexual behaviors across the region reflect patterns that place the population at risk for HIV. These behaviors include early onset of sexual behavior, cultural acceptability of multiple partners, especially for males, and low levels of condom use. Tracking trends among individual risk groups is highly limited in Latin America. A major feature of the AIDS epidemic in this region is an increasing proportion of AIDS cases with category of transmission reported as unknown. This emerging category varies by country and ranges from 13% (Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay) to 50% (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela).

AIDS cases are reported to the Regional Program on AIDS/STD, Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) in Washington. AIDS surveillance remains one of the main tools for monitoring the course of the epidemic. However, this information is subject to limitations such as incomplete reporting, changes in case definitions, and delays in reporting. Reporting delays may give the false appearance of recent decline in disease when this decline is due to incomplete reporting of the most recent cases. A study in Mexico estimated that only 66% of the AIDS cases are reported within 8 months, 80% within one year, and 91% within 2 years. Under-reporting of AIDS cases is due to misclassification or failures in the surveillance system. Several methods for adjustments of under-reporting are available. The Quebec AIDS surveillance program compared predicted and observed AIDS deaths and estimated that the completeness of reporting was 92% in Canada.

Advances in molecular epidemiology

The identification, first of HIV-1 and then of HIV-2, and their subtypification using molecular techniques helped relate these characteristics to the biological behavior of the virus. While HIV-1 and HIV-2 have apparently distinct biological properties, the fear of a second HIV-2 epidemic has not occurred or may be occurring at a lower rate than HIV-1. Follow-up studies of HIV-infected individuals showed that the rate of AIDS development is more than 10 times higher in HIV-1 individuals as compared to HIV-2. Also, HIV-2 is less transmissible compared to HIV-1, by both perinatal and heterosexual routes. HIV-2 not only appears less virulent than HIV-1 but also might provide up to 70% protection for subsequent HIV-1 infection. This finding is relevant to investigate mechanisms of immune development for vaccine research. The variation in the nucleotide sequence of the envelope gene seems to play an important role in the pathogenesis of the HIV-1. The inter-patient variation in HIV-1 is greater than with HIV-2 and this variation correlates with clinical evidence of immunosuppression. Using quantitative PCR to determine proviral titer of HIV-infected individuals showed a range of HIV-2 proviral titer 10-to-100 fold lower than of HIV-1, suggesting that a decreased pathogenesis may be due in part to the lower viral burden.

Recent advances in the characterization of the HIV-1 genetic subtypes might have major epidemiological and preventive implications. A phylogenetic classification system for the HIV-1 is based on the homology of nucleotide sequences of gag (core) and env (envelope) genes. Changes in the V3-loop are not captured by the current classification system as a distinct subtype. This classification system is intended for taxonomic purposes. However, if this segment of the env is also able to modulate certain biological behavior of HIV-1 strains, the subtype might also characterize HIV-1 by transmissibility, infectivity, or pathogenesis. Epidemiologically, the distribution of these viral strains in the population may determine the course of sub-epidemics within large populations. If proved, this finding might have implications in understanding the epidemic dynamics, the development of a vaccine, or to test effective antiretroviral treatments.

Differentials in transmission patterns of the AIDS epidemic by geographical region are traditionally explained by behavioral patterns. A new theory explains these differences based on genetic differences in the virus circulating in Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas. McCutchan and co-workers identified five distinct strains of HIV-1: A, B, C, D, and E. There is a distinctive pattern in the geographic distribution of these strains. While all the strains are present in Africa, only strain B appears to be present in the United States. Thai women have been found infected with strain E and the majority of Indian women are infected with strain C. These findings may suggest that the Asian epidemics developed by the spread of E and C strains from Africa to Thailand and India. A recent report in Science by a Latin American scientist showed that the E subtypes from Thai heterosexuals grew better in Langerhans cells than did B strains from U.S. homosexuals(1). Langerhans cells are found throughout the mucosal linings of the cervix and vagina and the foreskin of the penis. If demonstrated, this may explain the hypothesis of a virus with a greater efficiency for heterosexual transmission which also would explain the geographical patterns of the epidemic. Assuming that these phenomena exist, then there is an enormous potential for the introduction of the E and C strains in the Americas where the predominant subtypes are B, resulting in an explosive heterosexual epidemic in areas where these subtypes have not penetrated.

The viral monitoring is very important. The World Health Organization established years ago an international network for the identification and characterization of HIV subtypes(2). In Brazil, three different subtypes of HIV-1 have been reported: B (88.5%), F (8.8%), and C (1.8%). Also, a Brazilian National Network for HIV-1 Isolation and Characterization has been established to monitor different HIV subtypes circulating in Brazil(3). In Mexico, all isolates from 1989 to 1993 showed the B genotype(4), and confirmed by another study identifying the subtype B in Guadalajara(5). In Argentina, among 21 HIV-1 samples tested, 14 were subtype B, six samples subtype F, and one subtype C(6). In Cuba seven samples were identified as subtype B(7).

In summary, the new characterization of HIV-1 in subtypes might not only explain the geographic distribution of the epidemic, but also have important implications for new sub-epidemics and for vaccine development. Any vaccine in order to be efficient must induce immunity that recognizes the envelopes of the different strains. However, one thing should remain clear in terms of primary prevention: protected intercourse is the best way to prevent the spread of the HIV regardless of its subtype.

Risk factors for HIV infection

The definition of preventive programs is focused on modifiable factors that are associated with an increased risk of transmission or development of the disease.

In the case of parenteral transmission, programs of self-exclusion of blood donors, prohibition of blood commerce and blood-product screening represent successful programs in the control of the HIV transmission by blood and blood products. However, improvements are required to achieve quality control in blood banks and 100 percent safe blood supply in Latin America. For example, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, there was a report of nine possible cases of HIV transmission related to blood products(8). Cases of HIV infection associated to IV-drug use are still under-estimated in Latin American countries. These cases occurr mainly in urban areas such as Rio de Janeiro, Brazil(9), Buenos Aires, Argentina(10), and Mexican cities bordering the United States.

Regardless of the biological behavior of the virus, today the practice of unprotected sexual intercourse remains the major risk factor to acquire the HIV infection. Thus, social networks and behavioral factors outweigh the biological risks associated with HIV transmissibility. The exchange of sexual partners and the social networks increase the risk of infection. Another variable that appears to increase transmission risk is the co-infection with an STD. High viremia levels are also correlated with infectiousness which are observed in primary infection and in late stages of immunodeficiency. Cervical HIV-1 DNA detection is increased in cervico-vaginal infection, immunosuppression, and with the use of contraceptives such as injectable progesterone.

The probability of heterosexual transmission has been estimated from several studies and seems to be influenced by several factors. For example, at the beginning of the epidemic in Thailand, the probability of HIV transmission per sexual act from female sexual worker to men was estimated to be 0.03 to 0.06(11). This estimate is substantially higher than the transmission risk reported from a multicenter study in Europe of 1.2 per 1,000 unprotected contacts (0.0012), and from estimates in the United StatesS ranging from 0.0009 to 0.002(12). The higher rate in Thailand could be explained for many new infected individuals at the beginning of the epidemic. High levels of HIV viremia are typical of primary HIV infection which indeed may increase viral shedding and infectiousness.

Mathematical models are useful to understand the epidemic dynamics and to test the effect of interventions. Koopman (1996)(13) showed that core groups cause primary infection to dominate HIV transmission even when more than 90% of virus is excreted during later stages of the infection. Consequently, vaccines which fail to prevent infection but which reduce or eliminate contagiousness during primary infection will, in most situations, stop the HIV epidemic.

Prevention of perinatal transmission

The spread of the HIV infection to heterosexual population was followed by an increased number of infected children due to perinatal transmission. However, one of the most encouraging areas of prevention is precisely perinatal transmission.

In Africa, rates of maternal-fetal transmission have been reported between 35% and 40%; and in the US and Europe from 25% to 30%. The identification of risk factors has been very useful in designing strategies to prevent mother-to-child transmission. It is considered that perinatal transmission is multifactorial. The recognized factors for transmission are divided into maternal and obstetrical factors. Among the maternal factors, viral load, the immune status of the mother, her level of CD4 counts, and the stage of the HIV-infection influence the rate of transmission. Among the obstetrical factors, breaks in the placental barrier, rupture of membranes, exposure of the baby to blood, trauma, and type of delivery are reported as factors that increase the transmission rate. Based on our current knowledge several questions still remain unanswered, among others, why does discordant twin infection occur? And why does selective transmission occur only in about 25% of the infants? Moreover, currently there are about two dozen pediatric cases with documented HIV-infection that have been able to clear the infection. Among the factors that may explain infection rate and progression, viral phenotype is important; the majority of the virus transmitted is non-syncytium induced (SI) isolates. The viral load appears to be the most important but not the only factor associated with the transmission (Fang, 1995). Based on current knowledge of risk factors, there are three levels of intervention to reduce the HIV maternal-to-infant transmission. In-utero transmission is addressed with antiretroviral treatment. As demonstrated by the AIDS Clinical Trials Group ACTG-076 protocol, zidovudine administered to the mother reduces transmission in two thirds, probably by reducing the viral load and the fetus infection. Inter-partum preventive approaches include vaginal washing, timing of delivery, and reducing trauma and exposure to cervical secretions. The model is based on the assumption that cleansing the birth canal lowered the likelihood of ascending infection. The possible role of an ascending infection is based on a mechanism thought to contribute to bacterial (group B streptococcus) and viral infections (herpes virus). However, a trial using chlorexidine solution at 0.25% failed to reduce the transmission rate of HIV infection(14) (Biggar, 1996). Another study showed no effect of C-section, but when practiced with rupture of membranes of less than four hours the risk of transmission declined(15). Measures to reduce post-partum HIV-infection rate such as prophylaxis for the baby and breast feeding are still controversial, particularly in developing countries.

Currently, the standard of care includes the administration of zidovudine to all HIV-infected pregnant women and there are clinical trials testing the efficacy of other antivirals such as 3TC, protease inhibitors, and nevirapine. Nutritional factors seem to play a role in the perinatal HIV transmission. Since deficiency of vitamin A has been associated with an increased risk of perinatal transmission, clinical trials of vitamin A supplementation are being conducted in Africa. In summary, the future for the prevention of perinatal HIV-infection is very optimistic.

Preventive programs

From a preventive perspective the HIV epidemic requires sustained mobilization of the community and expansion of the social response to the epidemic. The major tasks are to reduce the impact of the epidemic in areas already affected and to prevent its spread to new areas. There are several levels of prevention aimed at reducing the occurrence of new infections as well as the associated morbidity. At the primary level, to prevent the occurrence of new infections, interventions include the following: social and behavioral approaches to reduce high-risk practices linked to the HIV transmission, vaginal virucides for women, consistent use of condoms, blood and blood-product screening, reduction and treatment of STDs, antiviral treatment to pregnant women to reduce the perinatal transmission of HIV, and in the future the use of a preventive vaccine.

Secondary prevention is aimed at reducing the progression from HIV infection to AIDS and death. The interventions include timely and more effective antiviral therapy, reducing psychosocial distress, improving nutrition, and preventing and treating opportunistic infections.

Activities aimed at preventing the spread of the HIV-infection have several major components: (a) input information to elaborate a situation assessment, (b) research, (c) planning, (d) implementation, and (f) evaluation.

Input information is essential to guide preventive programs. The bases of this information are the epidemiological surveillance systems. This system collects and processes periodic information to monitor the course of the epidemic and it characterizes the disease in terms of the population more affected, age groups, geographical location, and category of transmission. The situation assessment is complemented by sentinel surveys as well as Rapid Assessment Prevalence Surveys, (RAPS). This method is used by the Centers for Disease Control to monitor HIV prevalence among high-risk populations. The HIV tests are conducted by using leftover blood specimens after removing all identifiers among people attending STDs clinics, hospitals, women's health centers, and drug treatment centers.

Research is a major component of any preventive effort. In Latin America, basic, medical, and social research is required to identify regional particularities of the epidemic. While some people might think that Latin American countries lack human resources and facilities to conduct research, this is only partially true. There are several excellence centers conducting research. In fact, Brazil is one of the leading Latin American countries in basic HIV research. Extensive research in HIV-1 and HIV-2 has been conducted, and circulating strains and subtypes are well characterized. This information is critical for the development of vaccines and the implementation of clinical trials of available vaccines.

Medical research is also important to determine patterns of viral resistance to treatments, regional differences in opportunistic infections, and different prophylactic and therapeutic approaches.

Social and behavioral research is essential to determine the distribution of risk behaviors, social networks, population dynamics, and to identify vulnerable populations.

Planning uses all available information. A major role in the planning process is played by the costs as well as the demonstrated effectiveness of the interventions. Since a strategic plan has to be adjusted to budget constraints, one criteria to choose investments in programs should include prioritization and costs-effectiveness analysis. Consensus building is a major task after planning a preventive strategy and before its implementation. Of particular importance is to work with different groups. Since HIV transmission involves sexual practices, explicit information or certain messages might be sensitive for some segments of the population.

Program implementation represents one of the biggest challenges. For example, choosing appropriate channels to reach the general population for a universal program differs from a targeted component addressing high-risk populations.

Evaluation should be part of any intervention. For example, the evaluation of a condom program has several components; the inputs of the program could be based on the number of condoms distributed or sold. The process could be evaluated by assessing the implementation of the program, its coverage, and ways of delivering it. Outcome evaluation may include impact measurements such as behavioral change (condom use) or the number of new infections prevented.

Expectations for Vaccine-Based Prevention

As in other infectious diseases one of the most powerful preventive interventions to control and eventually eradicate the disease relies on the development of a vaccine. However, any AIDS vaccine is facing several practical problems. First, extreme optimistic views at the beginning of the epidemic raised false expectations as to the time when the vaccine would be available for immediate use in the field. Second, one simple technology will be unable to stop the epidemic if there is no community mobilization. Examples of this situation exist for other diseases where, despite the fact that there is a highly effective vaccine, logistic problems in the delivery, high costs (in developing countries), adverse reactions, and public acceptance have limited the vaccine coverage and the eradication of diseases such as measles, pertussis, tetanus, and polio.

While vaccine development has high priority, other activities are also needed. It is necessary to build the infrastructure for clinical trials aimed at testing new products, their delivery, and costs. These clinical trials require populations not only with high HIV-incidence, but also highly motivated to maintain compliance for long term follow-up. Beyond randomization and control groups, ethical research principles mandate that all participants receive other preventive interventions to reduce risk of infection.

Ideally, the new vaccine should be polyvalent and not only efficacious to subtypes prevalent in the United States. Seroconvertion and clinical protection might be complemented with other outcomes such as effect on viral load and survival. Mathematical models about the dynamics of the HIV-epidemic show that even a vaccine not 100% efficacious would be able to reduce the spread of the epidemic substantially. Two major initiatives for a vaccine development are lead by the World Health Organization and The International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (IAVI), a non-profit organization incorporated in January 1996 and sponsored by the Rockefeller Foundation. The goal of both organizations is to accelerate the development of a safe and effective preventive vaccine that meets the needs of the developing world where the burden of infection is centered. These organizations oppose the development of vaccines only against HIV subtypes prevalent in the United States and Europe hoping that it will work in developing countries. Vaccine approaches include: live-attenuated HIV, nucleic acid, whole-killed HIV and other particles, live recombinant viral vectors, and live recombinant bacterial vectors.

Lessons of preventive programs from the world

This section is aimed at reviewing some of the most relevant reports on preventive interventions whose efficacy warrants thoughtful analysis and presents important lessons useful for the public health practitioner.

Impact of Improved Treatment of STDs on HIV Infection

A growing body of evidence suggested that ulcerative STDs facilitate HIV transmission. One of the most compelling evidence of the impact of STD treatment on HIV infection comes from a randomized trial in Tanzania. The program lead to a 40% reduction in HIV incidence through the implementation of a public health STDs prevention and care program(16). The project improved the diagnosis and treatment of STD's integrated into the health care center according to guidelines recommended by the WHO.

STD services to high risk populations such as female sex workers are often provided. However, as the epidemic affects other groups, adolescents have almost no access to family planning or STDs services. Condom distribution at family planning services does not ensure prevention since is not used by women who follow permanent methods of contraception. One major problem is the low sensitivity of clinical signs for diagnosis of STDs. Screening based on risk assessment has only a positive predictive value of 20% which results in over-treatment of about 80% of treated women. Health research services in Latin America are required to improve the current detection, treatment, and delivery of STD to reach different populations requiring these services.

The 100% Condom Program in Thailand

The Thai HIV/AIDS prevention and control program is one of the few programs in the world with some evidence of success at a national level(17) (Rojanapithayakorn, 1996). The 100% condom program was based on the assumption that the source of the heterosexual epidemic in Thailand was the commercial sex industry. The program had two components: (a) it used administrative means to ensure that condoms were used in commercial sex establishments at all times (100%) and (b) it launched a mass advertising campaign promoting the use of condoms in commercial sex. Its national dimension helps understand the limitations to conduct a reliable evaluation. Thus, it is not clear which component had the greatest effect or was more effective. However, impressive results were observed; condom use increased from 14% before 1989 to over 90% by December 1994. During the same period, the number of STDs diagnosed in men attending government clinics declined from 200,000 to 28,000. The program promoted the use of condoms by commercial sex workers (CSW) and their clients with no exception. If a consumer refuses, the CSW withholds the service and refunds the consumer's money. Contact tracing was used to determine which commercial sex establishment (CSE) was not cooperating with the program. When a men was diagnosed with an STD, he reported the CSE were he acquired the infection. A local STD/AIDS unit initiated a process that led to sanctioning that CSE. To prevent CSE losing money and, hence, rejection of the program, the local government and the police were key elements to enforce the observance of the program.

This program offers several lessons worthy of analysis. National leadership, participation of the mass media, awareness of the AIDS epidemic, targeted campaigns for condom use, recognition of the existence of prostitution rather than disapproving its existence, organization of the sex industry, use of local STD/AIDS clinics working in a national network, contact tracing programs, and STDs monitoring as immediate outcome of the program. While most of these interventions are well known, there are two other that would require thoughtful analysis because of their possible limitations for implementation in other countries: law enforcement and the introduction of economic incentives for CSE.

The AIDS Community Demonstration Projects in the U.S.

These HIV-intervention projects began in 1989 targeting high-risk groups in five US cities: street-recruited injecting-drug users (IDUs); female sex partners of male IDUs; women who trade sex for money or drugs (female sex traders); men who have sex with men (MSM) but do not self-identify as homosexual; and youth in high-risk situations (e.g., street youth who spend most nights away from home). One of the primary goals of these projects was to target HIV-interventions to at-risk "hard to reach groups" populations who were not necessarily participating in established, facility-based prevention programs. The key components of the project included: (a) use of behavioral change models and theories to design the intervention; (b) formative research within the project communities before the intervention; (c) print materials (e.g., pamphlets, brochures, flyers) containing stories of persons in the targeted populations who had changed their HIV-risk behaviors (i.e., role-model stories); (d) distribution of these materials with condoms and bleach kits by community networks; and (e) implementation and outcome evaluation. One interesting element of these intervention projects is that they incorporated elements of the following theories and models: Health Belief Model, Theory of Reasoned Action, Social Cognitive Theory, and Stages of Change (SOC) continuum of the Transtheoretical Model. The assessment of the intervention showed exposure rates among eligible respondents ranging from 22% to 68% during the early intervention phase. Female sex traders were most likely to report exposure to project materials and staff, while nonhomosexually identifying MSM were the least likely to report exposure to the intervention program. Behavioral outcomes for each respondent were measured along the SOC continuum; stages were coded from 1 (precontemplation), 2 (contemplation), 3 (ready for action), 4 (action), and 5 (maintenance). At the first stage, an at-risk person may have no intention of changing the high risk behavior; several events may then lead the person to form intentions to adopt the behavior in the distant future (contemplation): these intentions may be followed by initial, perhaps exploratory, attempts to adopt the behavior (ready for action). The new behavior is then adopted (action) and ultimately becomes a routine part of the person's life (maintenance). The outcome objective of the ACDPs was to promote progress along the SOC continuum toward the goals of consistent use of condoms and bleach. Progress along these behavioral-change stages was considered success, although the consistent practice of risk-reduction behaviors (maintenance) is necessary to prevent transmission of HIV. For each of four behaviors investigated, the mean SOC value among persons in the intervention areas who reported exposure to the project intervention was greater than the mean SOC value among those who did not report exposure [consistent condom use for vaginal intercourse with a main partner (2.1 vs 1.9, p<0.05)]. Consistent condom use for vaginal intercourse with non-main partner was higher in the exposed group as compared to the non-exposed group (3.1 Vs 2.8, p<0.05); this was mainly due to a higher proportion of exposed respondents (41%) than of nonexposed respondents (27%) reporting consistent condom use. Consistent condom use for anal intercourse with non-main partner was also higher in the exposed group than in the nonexposed group (3.8 Vs 2.9, p<0.001) mainly due to a higher proportion of respondents exposed to the project and reporting consistent condom use for anal intercourse (58%) as compared with respondents who were not exposed to the intervention (27%). Consistent use of bleach to clean injection equipment was also higher in intervention-area respondents exposed as compared to the nonexposed group (mean SOC 3.3 Vs 2.9, p<0.001).

These results indicate that persons who are at risk for either sexually transmitted or needle-borne infections can be favorably influenced toward consistent risk-reducing behaviors through a community level intervention. To maximize the influence of the intervention, efforts should be made to expose as many persons as possible in the intervention communities to the specific prevention messages.

The revision of this prevention approach reveals two key elements for the success of any community program. It was designed to be as sensitive as possible to the populations concerned and relied on the participation of persons who were part of that population (peers).

Conclusions

The fight against the HIV epidemic at this new stage requires three components: recognition, understanding, and leadership. First, we have to recognize that the HIV epidemic is an increasing problem across Latin America and the Caribbean. In this region population dynamics, social networks, and behavioral patterns are more relevant for the course of the epidemic than geographical boundaries.

The new knowledge about the biological behavior of the virus suggests that recognized subtypes and the biological variability of the HIV has the potential to induce new waves of subepidemics. To understand epidemic trends, it is important to make clear that in Latin American countries such as Brazil and Mexico the deceleration in the overall number of new reported cases does not reflect the course of the epidemic towards rural or heterosexual populations. That the hypothesis of a saturation of the pool of susceptible people, proposed for some North American cities, is very unlikely to be the case in Latin America. That a population of 50 million under 15 years living in Latin America will be providing annually about 10 million adolescents that start sexual activity. This situation demands an effort to maintain continuous campaigns to promote safe sex and condom use.

To maintain a sustained effort to prevent new HIV infections, a strong leadership is required to promote an international effort to control the epidemic. This leadership needs to be combined with political will and broad public consensus that control of the HIV epidemic must be achieved. There is worldwide agreement that the most pervasive risk factor for disease in the world today is poverty. Ignorance and poverty are elements that condition the vulnerability of social groups to suffer epidemics.

Today, a major leadership and effort to fight against the HIV-epidemic in the Americas has been conducted by the Pan-American Health Organization. Its main activity has been to assess the size and course of the epidemic and provide technical and financial support in the region. More recently, the Regional Initiative for the Control of HIV/AIDS and other STD's in Latin America and the Caribbean (SIDALAC) has been launched by the Fundación Mexicana para la Salud. This new regional initiative aims at developing research in the HIV arena, that may help decision makers in their strategic planning for the prevention of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Since geographical boundaries will not stop the HIV epidemic, this leadership is critical to develop partnership for international preventive efforts.

While governments are responsible before their peoples for providing adequate access to preventive and therapeutic care, community involvement and participation are essential for the success of preventive interventions to control the HIV-epidemic.

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Macias J. Impact of drug addiction on HIV-AIDS infection in women. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 2441).

Macias J. Critical epidemilogical and social study of HIV-AIDS infected women in Buenos Aires. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 1423).

Mastro TD, Satten GA, Nopkesorn T, et al. Probability of male-to-female transmission of HIV-1 in Thailand. Lancet 1994; 343:204-207.

Ortega G. Distribution and patterns of spread of HIV in Buenos Aires Argentina. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 1445).

Phillips KA, Coates TJ. HIV counselling and testing: reserach policy issues. AIDS Care 1995;7:115-124.

Rebsamen-Waigman H, VonBriesesn H, Holmes H, et al. Standard conditions of virus isolation reveal biological variability of HIV-1 in different regions of the world. WHO network for HIV isolation and characterization. AIDS Research & Human Retrovirus 1994;10:1401-1408.

Regina M. Present status of the perinatal transmission of HIV in Cuba importance of the diagnosis in pregnant women. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 2602).

Rojanapithayakorn W, Haneneberg R. The 100% condom program in Thailand. AIDS 1996;10:1-7.

Rolo F. Human Immunodeficiency Virus variants in Cuba. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 2087).

Sanchez K. Trends on the AIDS epidemic among adolescents in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 2621).

Silva J. STD/AIDS prevention among female prostitutes in Sao Paulo State. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 2622).

Shiboski S. HIV infectivity: information from epidemiological studies of heterosexual transmission. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract C.573).

Soto-Ramirez L. Differential growth of HIV-1 subtypes in Langerhans' cells. Relation to transmition route. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 370).

Soto-Ramirez L, Renjifo B, McLane MF, et al. HIV-1 Langerhans' cell tropism associated with heterosexual transmission of HIV. Science 1996;271:1291-1293.

Telles PR. Assessing the regional distribution of HIV prevalence among drug users in Rio de Janeiro Brazil. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 1425).

The current situation of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. WHO Wkly Epidem Rec 1995;70:355-357.

The status and trends of the golabal HIV/AIDS pandemic. Final report. The Joint United Nations Programe on HIV/AIDS. UNAIDS, Vancouver 5-6 Julio, 1996.

Vandale S. Trends in the AIDS epidemic in Mexican women. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 1434).

Vazquez-Valls E. Monotypic HIV-1 subtype B in Guadalajara Mexico. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 2070).

Vigilancia Epidemiologica del SIDA en las Americas. Organizacion Panamericana de la Salud. Informe Trimestral, 10 de Diciembre de 1995.

Withum DG. Rapid assessment of prevalence surveys: prevalence data for use in local HIV prevention community planning. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 4366).

 

References

1. Soto-Ramirez L. Differential growth of HIV-1 subtypes in Langerhans' cells. Relation to transmition route. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 370).

2. Rebsamen-Waigman H, VonBriesesn H, Holmes H, et al. Standard conditions of virus isolation reveal biological variability of HIV-1 in different regions of the world. WHO network for HIV isolation and characterization. AIDS Research & Human Retrovirus 1994;10:1401-1408.

3. Galvao-Castro B. The strategy of Systematically Monitoring HIV-1 Genetic and Antigenic Variability in Brazil. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 2053).

4. Gudino JC. Genotyping of Mexican HIV-1 isolates. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 2071).

5. Vazquez-Valls E. Monotypic HIV-1 subtype B in Guadalajara Mexico. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 2070).

6. Campodino M, et al. Evidence of the presence of HIV-1 subtype C strains in Argentina. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 2052).

7. Gomez CE, Iglesias E, Fernández J, Lobaina L, Noa E, Díaz H, et al. DNA sequence of the C2-V3 region of the external glycoprotein (gp120) from cuban HIV-1 infected individuals. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada , July 1996 (Abstract Tu. A. 2057)

8. Niskier H, Visani IW, Miranda ICS, Santos NJS, Dominguez CSB. Investigation of possible contamination by HIV throught blood transfusion in the City of Sao Paulo, Brazil . XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada , July 1996 (Abstract Tu. C. 2560)

9. Telles PR. Assessing the regional distribution of HIV prevalence among drug users in Rio de Janeiro Brazil. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 1425).

10. Macias J. Impact of drug addiction on HIV-AIDS infection in women. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract 2441).

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13. Koopman J. Core groups cause primry infection to dominate HIV transmission even when more than 90% of virus is excreted during later stages of the infection. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (Abstract C.570).

14. Biggar RJ, Miotti P, Taha TE. Risk factors por HIV-1 cord blood positivity sanples among infected infacts. XI International Conference on AIDS. Vancouver Canada, July 1996 (We. C. 3592 Abstract C.573).

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